Vliv letového provozu na šíření nemoci COVID-19

Vliv letového provozu na šíření nemoci COVID-19




Svět hlásí již 10 milionů nakažených lidí. Některá území jsou stále uzavřeny a nepřístupné pro turisty. Největší problémy zaznamenává aktuálně kontinent Jížní Ameriky, kde je denně nově nakažených až 50.000. V České republice po uvolnění restrikcí se nakazilo v neděli 28. června 2020 přes 300 lidí, nejvíce od půlky dubna.

Letecká organizace IATA na svých webových stránkách vydavá denně aktualizovaný report ohledně provozu letišť po celém světě, které zaznamenávají počet odletů na jednovlivých letištích nebo kontinentech.

Svět: Počet odletů všech letounů od 27.3.2020 do 27.6.2020

Dle vývoje grafu jde vidět, že letecká doprava pomalu roste. K 27. červnu bylo uskutečněno 4210 odletů. Provnáme-li graf s počtem nově nakažených COVID-19, mohlo by se zdát, že rozvolňování letecké dopravy by mohlo mít přímý vliv na počet nově nakažených.

Svět: Kumulativní nárust nakažených COVID-19

Největší vliv na nově nakažené COVID-19 má Jížní Amerika. Denně se nakazí až 50.000 občanů. Letecká doprava je v Jížní Americe stále omezena a lze říct, že tento kontinent je stále na začátku. Epidemie tam začala dle grafu v půlce dubna 2020, ovšem bude to spíše pozdním testováním obyvatelstva, neboť letecká doprava byla již omezena na konci března jako ve většině světa.

Jížní Amerika: Počet odletů vs. Počet nově nakažených

Největší rozvolňování letecké dopravy aktuálně probíhá v Evropě, kde první vlna proběhla 15. června 2020 a druhá větší vlna proběhne 1. července, kde většina leteckých společností spustí nové linky do dovolenkových destinací. Letecký provoz je i přesto -70% oproti roku 2019.

Evropa: Počet odletů vs. Počet nově nakažených

Právě na grafu Evropy lze vidět, že rozvolňování leteckého provozu nemá přímý dopad na počet nakažených. Může to být ovšem vlivem inkubační doby, která je přibližně 14 dnů. Počet nakažených v Evropě je okolo 2,6 milonů lidí.

V České republice se letecký provoz obnovil stejně jako ve většině Evropy 15. června (více zde). Druhá vlna obnovy bude 1. července, kde velký počet letů obnoví Ryanair, Wizz Air a Smartwings. Tyto tři letecké společnosti budou v následujících měsících bojovat o cestující do dovolenkových destinací.

ČR: Počet odletů vs. Počet nově nakažených

Aktuálně to vypadá, že obnova letového provozu bude pokračovat na základě poptávky, letecké společnosti budou dělat vše, aby nalákali cestující zpět a budou se předhánět v cenových nabídkách (více zde). Bezpečnost cestujících musí být a bude na prvním místě.




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